Age-Based Reopening Could Soften the Economic Blow While Saving Lives

A National Bureau of Economic Research working paper from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) economics professors proposes a targeted lockdown policy that protects older Americans until a COVID-19 vaccine can be developed, while reopening the economy sooner for those at a reduced risk, reports the MIT Sloan School of Management . Such a policy could potentially save up to 1.37 million lives. The researchers applied the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered framework to model the spread of the virus, then accounted for multiple risk levels among different segments of the U.S. population, along with different levels of interaction with other people through work or small group activities. The authors also assumed that developing a vaccine will take 18 months. Their proposed "semi-targeted" lockdown model maintains a strict quarantine for Americans over 65 until a vaccine is ready, while working-age Americans from 20 to 65 experience "a less severe and shorter lockdown" that is lifted in stages. In a semi-targeted lockdown policy designed to keep the total fatality rate at 0.2 percent, economic losses drop to 24.9 percent of one year's gross domestic product compared to 37.3 percent in a uniform lockdown. The authors also suggest measures to help older adults subjected to the longer lockdown in a Time op-ed, including an Elder Care Corps of newly employed college graduates to shop and deliver home-care services; dedicated delivery teams to serve seniors; and regular testing of nursing and senior community staff.